1. Stability or Sustainability? The Millet Paradox in Indian Agriculture

Climate change poses growing challenges to agricultural sustainability and food security, especially in countries like India, where farming is highly dependent on weather conditions. This study compares the climate sensitivity and economic performance of key cereal and millet crops-rice, wheat, jowar, bajra, and ragiusing long-term data on yield, rainfall, temperature, and market support. The analysis applies a multi-indicator framework that includes correlation analysis between crop productivity and climate variables, Climate Sensitivity Indices (CSI), and a Composite Climate Sensitivity Index (CCSI) combining rainfall and temperature variability. Economic viability is assessed using the Productivity-to-MSP (Minimum Support Price) ratio, which reflects crop returns relative to government price support. Findings reveal that millets such as bajra and jowar, though traditionally considered drought- tolerant, show high yield sensitivity to climate variability, particularly rainfall. Bajra recorded the highest CCSI value (2.59), indicating substantial climatic influence on yield. In contrast, wheat demonstrated the greatest yield stability, supported by irrigation infrastructure and technological inputs. Ragi showed relatively low sensitivity to climatic changes but consistently underperformed in economic terms. The economic analysis further indicates that rice and wheat provide better returns per unit of MSP, while millets offer lower and more volatile returns. This economic disadvantage, coupled with climatic sensitivity, highlights key barriers to scaling up millet cultivation despite its ecological and nutritional benefits. The study concludes that promoting millets as climate-resilient crops requires more than symbolic recognition. Strengthening procurement, irrigation, and research support is essential to improve both their yield stability and market viability. A data-driven approach to crop diversification can enhance climate resilience while supporting farmer incomes and long-term food security