A Study on Export and Import Direction of Indian Cashew Kernels- Markov Chain Approach

Cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) is called as the poor man’s crop and the rich man’s favourite snack food all over the world. Cashew is cultivated mainly in the Asian, African and Latin American zones. The cashew industry provide employment to about 1.60 million people, of which more than 90 per cent are women. Cashew kernels are ranked as either the second or third most expensive nut traded in the world. Cashew ranks fourth in world production of edible nuts that are traded globally. The current cashewnut production in India accounts for 19.90 per cent of the global production. India being the leader in the world in raw cashew nut production and is also the largest supplier of cashew kernels to the major world markets. A large number of small and marginal farmers, especially living on the coastal belts of India, depend on cashew for their livelihood. The results of the study revealed that the compound growth rate for imports showed that the quantity and value of raw cashew nuts imported by India during the period 1996-97 to 2022-23 increased at a compound annual growth rate of 11.96 per cent and 19.16 per cent, respectively, indicating greater import potential and the results ofMarkov chain analysis indicated that the steady state probabilities and showed that if the trend continues like this, in future 43.36 per cent of Indian cashew export would go to United Arab Emirates, 16.13 per cent would go to Japan, 13.29 per cent would go to Netherland, 11.01 per cent would go to Saudi Arab, 5.53 per cent would go to Spain, 1.17 per cent would go to USA and 9.51 per cent would go to other countries. Furthermore, the probabilities in Indian cashew processing industry had to be considered in order to improve the quality standards of Indian cashew in the world market.There are both threats and opportunities for cashew growers with climate changethe key is to understand the likely impacts and then managing the risks. Developing adaptation strategies such as adoption of soil and water conservation measures, mulching, supplemental irrigation, drip irrigation, fertigation and carbon sequestration is essential to reduce the vulnerability of cashew to climate change.