Export Dynamics of Vinegar Preserved Gherkins from India: Markov Chain Approach

The study examines the factors driving the export success of gherkins from India, emphasizing its performance in global markets. India’s horticultural sector, particularly gherkins production and exports, has grown significantly, establishing its key role in international trade. The study aimed to analyze the growth and instability in export, direction of trade and projection of export from India of prepared/preserved in vinegar gherkins from 2011-12 to 2022-23. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was used to assess export growth, while the Coefficient of Variation and Cuddy-Della Valle Index measured export instability. Markov Chain was employed to analyse the direction of trade and demand projection. The study found a negative CAGR of -3.77 per cent for preserved gherkins, with an instability index of 17.53 per cent, indicating moderate market fluctuations. Although demand from the USA and Canada remains steady, European markets, especially France and the Netherlands, show a decline, with France experiencing the highest instability (54.44%). Markov Chain analysis revealed decreasing market loyalty in Europe, while North America demonstrated stronger retention. To counter negative growth, the sector must explore emerging markets, innovate and emphasize sustainability. Enhancing quality, addressing processing inefficiencies and implementing contract farming models to empower farmers are key to improving competitiveness and fostering rural economic growth.