Trends and trade directions in the production and export of coffee

The study was conducted to assess the growth, instability and export diversification of coffee. Coffee, a cultural and economic cornerstone for India over centuries has assumed a vital role in the nation’s economy. Data collected from the Department of Economics and Statistics (DES) and the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) were analyzed. Growth trajectory, a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis paints a vivid picture. From 1985-86 to 2021-22, coffee production escalated at a CAGR of 3.35 per cent, while the cultivation area expanded by 2.08 per cent. Interestingly, productivity showcased undulating trends, with the highest CAGR of 2.72 per cent in the second period (1995-96 to 2004-05). Amid global coffee market fluctuations, the research accentuates the pressing need for diversifying export destinations. Through a Markov chain analysis, Italy, Spain and Belgium emerged as steadfast importers, while Germany and Slovenia posed unpredictability. The significance of diversification becomes evident as Italy’s import contribution diminished from 31.25% (2010-11) to 24.76% (2019-20). This transformation underscores the strategic requirement for broadening market outreach, fortifying India’s coffee industry. The study’s findings hold profound policy implications. Leveraging diversification, India’s coffee sector can amplify resilience heighten global competitiveness and offer policymakers a roadmap to strategize market expansion, alleviating reliance on stable yet volatile markets.