Impacts of Higher Premium Support Rates on ECO Performance

Renewable diesel production capacity in the U.S. exploded in recent years, increasing over three billion gallons (farmdoc daily, March 8, 2023; March 29, 2023). This had a substantial impact on fats and oils feedstock markets, as well as diesel markets in states with low carbon fuel programs. Numerous announcements about additional renewable diesel plants have been made in the press, and based purely on this information, it appears that the renewable diesel boom is far from over. However, the profitability of renewable diesel production has taken a major hit in the last year (Khan and Jao, 2024), as the industry began to produce at a level greater than the demand ceiling set by the annual renewable volume obligations (RVOs) under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. In an earlier farmdoc daily article (May 31, 2023), we explained the process as the biomass-based diesel industry going over the “RIN cliff.” In this uncertain environment, it is important to understand how much longer the boom in renewable diesel might last and how much more capacity may be added. Consequently, the purpose of this article is to update our estimates of renewable diesel production capacity through 2026. The analysis is based on a review of capacity that can be projected with reasonable confidence and that which cannot. This is the 19th in a series of farmdoc daily articles on the renewable diesel boom (see the complete list of articles here).