Record Pig Crop driven by Record Pigs per Litter

The USDA’s December Hogs and Pigs report places the December 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 75.8 million head, down 0.8% from last quarter but up 0.5% from last year, compared to an average trade expectation of 0.2% higher. The slightly higher total is driven by a 0.5% year-over-year increase in market hogs, also expected to be 0.2% higher, while the breeding herd increased by 0.1% from the prior year, as expected. The main surprise is a record September-November pig crop, up more than 2.0% from a year ago and just above the upper end of the range of pre-report expectations, as a 0.2% cut in sows farrowed was more than offset by 11.92 pigs per litter, up 2.3% from last year’s record for the period, continuing the upward trend in pigs per litter. While this level of productivity growth took the trade by surprise, in part because it is difficult to continually break records by large margins, further productivity growth is feasible, as Denmark is recently averaging around 15 pigs per litter.