Record Pigs per Litter again Offsets Cuts to Farrowings

The USDA’s December Hogs and Pigs report places the December 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 74.97 million head, up 0.88% from last quarter and 0.02% from last year, compared to an average trade expectation of 0.6% lower (ranging from 1.7% lower to 0.6% higher). The slightly higher total is driven by a nearly 0.3% year-over-year increase in market hogs, which is toward the upper end of pre-report estimates, while the breeding herd declined a surprising 3.3% from the prior year, falling below the expected range of 1.7% lower to 0.6% higher). The lightest two weight classes of market hogs are each down about 0.5% compared to last year, though not as much as expected (1.2% and 0.8% lower for hogs under 50 pounds and 50-199 pounds, respectively), while the heavier two weight classes are up more than expected, with the over-180-pound class nearly 2.5% higher compared to expectations of about 1% higher. Overall, there are 0.17% fewer hogs weighing under 180 pounds than a year ago, and these will be the market hogs arriving at processing plants from January to May 2024, suggesting similar supplies as last year for the period, despite expectations for greater pullback.