A nemteljesítő hitelek vizsgálata a mezőgazdaságban

The European Central Bank published its report on banking supervision statistics for significant institutions for the third quarter of 2023 on 12 January 2024. The report states that the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio remained stable, at 2.27% in the third quarter. A similar situation is shown for Hungary by the Financial Stability Report of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank published on 28 May 2024, which states that the non-performing loans ratio is low at the national level. The domestic rate stagnated in the corporate segment, so overall portfolio quality remains adequate. The decline in the NPL ratio stopped in 2020, and after a trend change, its level shows stabilization with slight fluctuations. This study has a dual objective. To explore the relationship between the increase in agricultural input and energy prices experienced in recent years and the development of NPL, and to point out the effects of this change on domestic agriculture. According to the authors' first hypothesis (H1), the development of input and energy prices - despite market and non-market measures - shows a significant relationship with the development of NPL. According to their second hypothesis (H2), the domestic agricultural SME sector, and microenterprises in particular, are most burdened by the effects that trigger the change in NPL. The authors examined the validity of the first hypothesis with a correlation analysis, and the second with an analytical analysis of time series. The microdatabase used in the research is novel, as it allows the examination of non-performing loans by loan and company segments. Previously, only national economy-level data were available. The conducted studies have proven the validity of both hypotheses, so the authors, based on the results and conclusions that can be drawn from them, point out that - in addition to further increased monitoring of the factors influencing the financial stability of domestic agriculture - the continuation of complex sectoral resilience building is highly justified in the future.