A magyar mezőgazdaság modernizációs törekvései és kudarcai az aszálykárok és a globális mezőgazdasági alapanyag-túltermelési válság kapcsán

The paper examines the impact of the 2022 drought on the yields of cereals and oilseeds grown in the largest areas in the European Union (EU) member states, assuming that the meteorological event left a serious mark on yield averages in most of the EU. In contrast, more significant yield losses were observed in the countries of the Carpathian-Balkan and Mediterranean regions, which could only cause a spectacular drop in national GDP in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria (1.5%, 1.4% and 0.7%). Focusing on Hungary, the crop production sector was hit by drought damage of a similar magnitude to that in 2022 on several occasions. It is striking, however, that the previously high share of crops, which are most exposed to climate change and affected by the global agricultural raw material overproduction crisis that has been unfolding in recent years, has continued to increase in agricultural output and agricultural areas since the change of regime. Examining the two previous major modernization waves of Hungarian agriculture, the study identifies a pattern that has been repeating for a century and a half: modernization efforts resulted in an agricultural structure that ensured the production of products with low innovation requirements.