Vue prospective sur la répartition du territoire agricole français en 1975

The transformation oj general economic conditions, the uncertainties of the Common Market and its joint agricultural policy, and the inadequacy of the descriptions of the past combine to turn any longterm projection of farm production into a very risky exercise. It may seem rather arbitrary to limit this work to forescasts concerning land utilization and crop production alone, now that the processing of plant production into animal products is taking a leading part. Crop rotations bring an important element of rigidity into crop production while there is the technical possi~ bility of a wide choice in animal production. For lack valid \nowledge of the laws of supply, the longterm evolution (here 1975) of land use can only be outlined by analysting trends; this method is not very satisfactory since its logical bases are weakThe general impression of this imperfect work is one of stability. A great inertia appears and nothing makes us suppose that it is disappearing. This inertia is related to both agricultural and economic constraints and to farm structures. A coherent projection can not be realised at once and only for plant production. As separate projections are drawn up for animal productions, successive consistancy checks can be applied: fodder balance sheet, foreign trade, income oj farmers. The use o/ these checks implies necessarily progressive repetitions and rectifications which have lead us to the notion of rigidity of the trends. Several projection attempts have been carried out for France. The results differ when a single product is considered, but on an aggregate level the consistancy is quite good. In some cases, logistic growth curves or expotential functions are applied to the analysis of time series. More theoretical reflexion would be needed in order to give greater justification to this technique.