Agricultural markets in the new member states - development of agricultural production in Hungary

The paper analyses the impact of EU enlargement on the agricultural markets in the 10 New Member States (EU-N10). A high level of integration of markets of the EU-25 was achieved prior to enlargement. 65% of all agricultural exports of the EU-N10 and 69% of all imports went to EU-25 destinations over the last years prior to accession. The intensity of production and the productivity are relatively low in the EU-N10 as compared to the EU-15. It means that agricultural potential can be only gradually used and structural adjustment will continue. The market impact of enlargement seems to be positive for the EU-N10. Agricultural production will stabilise in the area of cereal and meat production. Agricultural markets will benefit from the trade creation effects of the integration into the single market and from the support of the CAP. Competitiveness of arable crop production in Hungary is out of question; however, its structure is vulnerable to changes of the CAP (introduction of the Single Payment Scheme: SPS). This is particularly true for potato, tobacco, sugar beet, and tomato production. Competition between maize and other major cereal production is strongly dependent on the intervention price level. Outlook for livestock production, especially for the pork-meat, poultry-meat, and milk production is rather depressing.