I futures possono contribuire anche in Europa alla stabilità del mercato del frumento?

The article points to the increasing uncertainty under which wheat farmers in Italy and in Europe as a whole are working as price guarantees are gradually removed under the Common Agricultural Policy and examines the possibility that use of futures markets might contribute towards relieving this uncertainty. It explains that under the former system of price guarantees, the conditions for the existence of a successful futures market did not exist since price variations were not such as to raise the need for operators to seek cover against risk through futures contracts. There follows a description of the basic mechanisms of futures contracts and a review of the principal literature on the subject, both theoretical and empirical, tracing the development of ideas about the contribution that futures markets can give to the reduction of uncertainty on the part of operators. The situation in the United States is compared with that in Italy: in the USA wide price fluctuations have not been accompanied by reductions in area under wheat or in production as happened in Italy. It is suggested that the mechanism of the futures market has played an informative role for American farmers which has helped them in their cropping choices. This has been lacking in Europe. It is suggested that futures might play a similar role for large farmers in Italy remaining in the cereals sector. Different options for participating in futures markets are examined. It is emphasised, however, that satisfactory use of futures markets by Italian farmers would depend on the availability of appropriate support services in the form particularly of appropriate financial advice and institutions.