Growth, Instability And Forecasting Of Pigeon Pea, Chickpea And Field Pea Pulse Production In Bangladesh

The study tried to find out the appropriate models using latest model selection criteria that could describe the best growth pattern of pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The study also tried to measure the instability, growth rates of pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production and to determine the efficient time series models, to forecast the future pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. Forecasting attempts have been made to achieve the target by developing the models namely, deterministic type growth models. The magnitude of instability in pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulses production was estimated by computing the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage deviation from three years moving average values. The study reveals that the pigeon pea pulse production was relatively stable (CV being 26.70%) compared to the chickpea (CV being 49.43%) and field pea (CV being 27.78%). Among the deterministic type models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production the cubic model is found to be the most appropriate one. The variation of the growth rates in pigeon pea pulse production was - 28.71 % to 2.52%, in chickpea pulse production was -79.49% to 2.56% and in field pea pulse production was -19.12% to 5.83% during the study period. For forecasting purposes, we forecasted the pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh in the year of 2008-09 to 2012-2013.