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Application of Gray Metabolic Model in the Prediction of the Cotton Output in China


  • Zhou, Zu-liang
  • Yin, Chun-wu


In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecast results of conventional GM (1, 1) Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model are analyzed, showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model. Therefore, Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, which is 614968.3 thousand tons.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Zu-liang & Yin, Chun-wu, 2011. "Application of Gray Metabolic Model in the Prediction of the Cotton Output in China," Asian Agricultural Research, USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation, vol. 3(01), January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:asagre:108394

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    Cited by:

    1. Nana Geng & Yong Zhang & Yixiang Sun & Yunjian Jiang & Dandan Chen, 2015. "Forecasting China’s Annual Biofuel Production Using an Improved Grey Model," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(10), pages 1-20, October.


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