From “Migrant Workers Boom” to “Migrant Workers Scarcity” —Analysis of Institutional Bottleneck of Rural Surplus Labors Transfer in China

Through description of three-steps characteristic of dual economic theory and its practical significance to the process of industrialization and urbanization in China, and making comparative analysis between important criterion of "Lewis turning point" and current situation of rural surplus labors market in China, we can find that there exists a great deal of surplus labors in rural areas in our country, improvement of peasant income is the result of external interference of government, and demographic dividend in our country hasn’t finished. These phenomena go against the theory of "Lewis turning point". So it can prove that "Lewis turning point" in China hasn’t come yet. The paper points out the major factors of coexistence of “migrant workers scarcity” and labors redundancy in our country. The first one is structure contradiction of labors market; the second one is law of supply-demand of labors market; the third one is institutional barrier which hinders labors in free flow of census register and social guarantee. Therefore, if we want to realize successful transfer of rural surplus labors and the goal of industrialization and urbanization, we must promote upgrading of industrial structure, change the style of economic growth and realize harmonious development of regional economy in macrocosmic level; And in microcosmic level, we should eliminate institutional barrier which hinders transfer of rural surplus labors.