Assessment of the carbon footprint of agriculture in Bulgaria: factors, dynamics and policies for emission reduction

Purpose. The present study assesses the carbon footprint of agriculture in Bulgaria through empirical analysis of its structure, dynamics and key determinants. The focus is on identifying the main sources of agricultural emissions, tracking their changes over time and measuring the influence of production intensity and energy consumption on the sector’s emission burden. Methodology / approach. The study applies quantitative analysis to Eurostat data using two time windows. The period 2014–2023 is used for comparative analysis of emission structure by sources (H1) and for trend analysis of the share of agricultural emissions through the Mann-Kendall test (H3). The longer period 2000–2023 is employed for multiple regression analysis of factors affecting emission intensity (H2). Results. The analysis shows that the carbon footprint of Bulgarian agriculture is primarily determined by emissions from enteric fermentation and the use of mineral (including nitrogen) fertilisers, which establishes them as the leading sources of greenhouse gases in the sector. The regression model for the period 2000–2023 finds that production intensity exerts a substantial and statistically significant positive influence on total agricultural emissions – higher yields per hectare, greater use of nitrogen fertilisers and higher energy consumption are associated with increased emissions. Despite the overall decline in national emissions in Bulgaria, agriculture’s share in them does not demonstrate a sustained downward trend over the last decade but increases, which indicates the sector’s relative emission resilience and the limited effect of policies for reduction to date. Originality / scientific novelty. The novelty is expressed in the fact that the study unites in a single framework the three key dimensions of agrarian emissions – structure, dynamics and determinants – and applies them consistently to Bulgarian agriculture. This study offers the first long-term quantitative assessment of Bulgarian agriculture’s carbon footprint based on current harmonised Eurostat data up to 2023. The agrarian emission profile is examined both at national level and in comparative perspective against EU-27 average values. In contrast with the prevailing studies on the carbon footprint of agriculture in the EU, which are predominantly descriptive or focus on individual Western European countries, the present study offers a first integrated view towards a post-socialist agrarian economy and outlines empirically grounded directions for decarbonisation of the sector. Practical value / implications. The findings support the formulation of more targeted policies for agricultural decarbonisation in Bulgaria by directing attention to the most emission-intensive activities – mineral fertilisation and livestock farming. The study emphasises the need for incentives for sustainable nutrient management, increased energy efficiency and accelerated adoption of low-carbon technologies. The practical value of the results is directly linked to the implementation of the European Green Deal objectives in the national agricultural context.