The impact of climate factors on agricultural development: ARDL bounds test approach

Purpose. This study aims to examine the long-term and short-term impacts of climatic factors on agricultural development in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, a semi-arid region of Azerbaijan. The research seeks to identify how climate variability and environmental changes influence agricultural productivity and sustainability in this vulnerable ecosystem. Methodology / approach. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the study analyses annual data from 1994 to 2023. The dependent variable is the share of agricultural production in GDP, while the independent variables include average temperature, precipitation, humidity, number of snow-covered days, population growth, and carbon dioxide emissions. Results. The empirical findings indicate that average temperature, humidity, carbon dioxide emissions, population growth, and snow-covered days have statistically significant effects on agricultural output, whereas precipitation shows no significant relationship. The results suggest that rising temperatures and declining humidity increase drought risk and soil degradation, adversely affecting agricultural productivity in Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The negative relationship between population growth and agricultural production indicates increasing demographic pressure on limited land and water resources. The positive impact of snow-covered days highlights the importance of seasonal snow cover in maintaining the groundwater reserves needed for irrigation. Originality / scientific novelty. This study provides one of the first empirical analyses of the climate-agriculture nexus in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic using the ARDL approach. It enriches the existing literature by offering localised evidence from a semi-arid border region of Azerbaijan, where climatic vulnerability is pronounced. Practical value / implications. The findings underline the necessity of adaptive climate policies, efficient water management strategies, and cross-border cooperation to ensure sustainable agricultural production. Policymakers can use these insights to design targeted interventions that enhance resilience and promote sustainable rural development in arid regions.