Economic impacts of war on Ukraine’s agricultural sector: a policy framework for recovery and resilience

Purpose. This study aims to assess the financial damages in the agricultural sector resulting from constraints on farmland use during the Russian-Ukrainian war, examine their multifaceted impacts at regional, national, and international levels, and develop recommendations for effective recovery strategies. It intends to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding these losses and to offer actionable recovery strategies for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate the war’s consequences on agriculture and global food security and to derive an evidence-informed set of targeted recovery recommendations, structured by time horizon (immediate, short-, long-term) and level of impact (regional, national, international), to implement the proposed framework. Methodology / approach. The research uses a systematic approach, synthesising data from scientific studies, official statistics, and international reports, including those from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, UNHCR, FAO, and the World Bank. A classification framework was developed to assess losses based on temporal dimensions (immediate, short-term, and long-term) and levels of impact (regional, national, and international), covering key areas such as production declines, export reductions, infrastructure destruction, land degradation, investment decreases, socio-demographic changes, and food security impacts. Results. The findings reveal severe adverse effects in Ukraine’s agricultural sector, including a sharp decline in production (e.g., 25% of rural households reported reduced output in 2022), export reductions (11% drop in wheat and 15% in corn exports in 2023–2024), and infrastructure damage costing over USD 37 billion. Land degradation, labour shortages (6 million refugees by 2025), and food insecurity have further exacerbated the crisis, impacting both Ukraine and global markets. State support programs, such as AGRI-Ukraine (USD 850 million investment), and international demining efforts (531,000 hectares cleared by 2024) are critical for recovery. Beyond documenting losses, the study proposes a policy matrix prioritising: (i) humanitarian demining linked with soil remediation, (ii) logistics and export corridor stabilisation, (iii) risk-sharing finance (credit guarantees, working-capital support), (iv) differentiated support by farm size, and (v) digital monitoring for targeting and transparency. Originality / scientific novelty. This study introduces a novel classification framework that integrates temporal and spatial dimensions of agricultural damages, providing a structured analysis of the war’s impact on agricultural sector of Ukraine across different levels. It uniquely combines regional data with global perspectives, highlighting the interconnectedness of local agricultural disruptions and international food security challenges, and offers targeted recovery strategies. Practical value / implications. The research offers policymakers a systematic understanding of the war’s impact on agriculture, facilitating the design of effective recovery policies. It underscores the need for international cooperation in demining, land restoration, and financial support to ensure the resilience of the sector, while also addressing global food security concerns through enhanced trade routes and support for import-dependent regions. We provide an actionable matrix with KPIs to guide sequencing and monitoring of recovery measures by authorities and donors.