Socio-economic resilience vs vulnerability: spatial modelling under sustainable development conditions (the case of Ukraine’s regions)

Purpose. The study aims to assess the degree of resilience of territories (on the example of Ukrainian regions) in the face of shocks and to identify the relationship in the system “economic losses during the shock – vulnerability and recovery period – recovery speed – safety margin”. Methodology / approach. The methodology for analysing socio-economic resilience is based on a comprehensive spatial and temporal approach with indicative assessments (indicators of vulnerability, recovery, safety margin, degree of resistance, degree of recovery, and degree of adaptation). The methodology is based on the decomposition of the resilience of the socio-economic system into regional labour markets, social sphere, demographic situation, and development of economic systems. The information and analytical basis of the study consists of data from the regions of Ukraine for the period 2010–2021, with 2014 and 2021 selected as reference points for assessing resilience and vulnerability indicators. Results. The study finds that the shocks (the military-political crisis of 2014–2015, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the full-scale war) have caused significant changes in the labour market and in the socio-demographic sphere, leading to a critical weakening of their resilience due to large-scale and dynamic migration processes, an acute shortage of workers, and a demographic crisis. The socio-economic system suffered significant losses in the face of shocks, with a recovery period of 3–4 years, indicating a high degree of vulnerability of Ukraine’s regional socio-economic systems to shocks. Originality / scientific novelty. The study provides a novel conceptual and methodological framework for assessing socio-economic resilience, integrating spatial and temporal dimensions with indicative assessments of vulnerability, recovery, and adaptive capacity. Unlike previous studies, this research develops a comprehensive model that decomposes resilience across key socio-economic subsystems, including labour markets, social and demographic structures, and economic development. The findings contribute to the scientific discourse by identifying critical linkages between economic losses, recovery speed, and resilience capacity, offering new insights into regional disparities and the long-term socio-economic adaptation of Ukraine’s regions to crises. Practical value / implications. The theoretical value of the research results lies in the development of a methodological and conceptual model of the resilience of the country’s territories in the context of global and local crises, which reflects the ability of socio-economic systems to adapt to and recover from shocks. The results are of practical importance for the planning of measures for the rapid recovery of the economy of Ukrainian regions and the strengthening of their socio-economic stability in the post-war period.