Forecasting the sale price of pork in agricultural enterprises

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to build and analyze an econometrical model to establish correlational relationships between the main factors influencing the price of pork sales. Methodology / approach. In the research process, general scientific and special research methods were used, namely: monographic – to detail the functioning of the pork market; comparative – for comparing indicators and identifying trends in their change over time; statistical – for studying processes, actual data, identifying trends and regularities in the development of the pork market; tabular – for a visual representation of the obtained results; graphic – to illustrate the trends of the studied economic phenomena; correlation and regression analysis – to determine the influence of the main factors on the selling price of pork and forecasting the selling price of products; abstract and logical – for formulating conclusions and research results. The information base of the study is the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and 100 agricultural enterprises of the Cherkasy region that are engaged in the production of pork. Results. With the help of regression analysis, the dependence between the factors affecting the selling price of pork was determined, the quantitative assessment of the parameters and their statistical reliability was carried out. The obtained results made it possible to draw reasonable conclusions about the current state of the process and its development in the future. A quantitative assessment of the dependence of the retail price of pork on the income of the population in the regions of Ukraine was carried out. The main results of the study can be used to predict performance characteristics based on actual, random and calculated factors. The developed econometrical model of forecasting and planning the selling price of pork will contribute to the improvement of the system of forming production plans for the short-term period and will make it possible to increase the company’s income. Originality / scientific novelty. In order to determine the forecast prices of pork sales and reduce their variability, it is substantiated the importance of using multiple correlation analysis to assess the interdependencies between statistical features and identify factors of direct or indirect influence on the price level. The results of the econometrical model are the basis for forecasting the sale price of pork, taking into account such factors as the number of animals and the average weight of one sold head, the increase of which will increase the profitability of the enterprise. Practical value / implications. The practical value of the obtained research results lies in the use of correlation and regression analysis as a flexible tool for determining the quantitative expression of relationships between the factor characteristic and independent variables. The results of the study can be useful for pork producers to better understand their current state, to be able to manage the ongoing events, and to more accurately predict the future state.