Dynamics of Production and Export of Tomato from India: Markov Chain Approach

India is the second largest producer of tomatoes in the world after China contributing around 10 percent of the world’s total tomato production and it has a lot of demand in the international market. The study was conducted to know the growth and stability in the area, production, productivity, and export of Indian tomatoes. The study also aimed to analyze the changing direction and magnitude of India’s tomato export to different countries. The study is based on secondary data collected from different sources over a period of 15 years (2006-07 to 2020-21). Compound annual growth rate analysis and instability index analysis were used to work out the growth and instability in the area, production, productivity, and export of Indian tomatoes. To analyze the direction of trade to different export destinations and to work out export projections, the Markov chain analysis/transition probability matrix through linear programming was used. The findings of the study revealed that there was positive growth in the area (2.21%), production (5.35%), productivity (3.07%), and even export of tomatoes (9.47% export quantity & 18.69% export value) from India but growth rates as well as instability were found to be more in export compared to area, production, and productivity. The results of the Markov chain analysis/transition probability matrix showed that other minor countries pooled under the category ‘others’, Bangladesh and UAE were more stable importers of Indian tomatoes whereas Nepal and Oman were found not at all stable countries with no retention of trade. Hence, Indian export policies need to be oriented towards these changes in trade directions and need to identify those countries among other minor importing countries to divert export of Indian tomato in the future.