Growth and Instability Analysis of Coconut in Kerala and India

The present study was carried out to analyze the growth trends and to observe magnitude of variations in area, production and productivity of coconut in India, Kerala and two major coconut growing districts (Kozhikode and Malappuram) of Kerala. This study is based on secondary data on area, production and productivity of coconut in India, Kerala and two districts of Kerala state collected from the website of Coconut Development Board (CDB) for a period of 20 years, i.e., from 2000-01 to 2019-20. The study used averages, coefficient of variation, instability index and compound annual growth rate for the analysis of the data. The growth trend was estimated using Compound Annual Growth Rate while the instability was measured using Cuddy Della Valle Instability index with the aid of coefficient of variation. The entire study period was further divided into two sub-periods: Period I (2000-01 to 2009-10) and Period II (2010-11 to 2019-20). The results of the growth rate analysis indicated that the highest growth rate was observed in production (3.85 %) followed by productivity (3.07 %) and area (0.75 %) at one per cent level of significance in the overall period in India. Whereas in Kerala, the area (-1.05 %) and production (-0.49 %) registered negative growth in the overall study period, but the productivity (0.57 %) showed a positive growth rate which was significant at five per cent level of probability. The results of the instability index reveal that the production of coconut in India experienced a highest variation of 10.59 per cent, followed by productivity (9.89 %) and area (3.36 %). Similarly, in Kerala, the instability index was found to be highest in production (11.12 %) followed by productivity (7.57 %) and area (5.71 %).