An Analysis of Growth Pattern and Volatility in Area, Production and Yield of Soybean in Major Producing States of India

Agriculture is one of the important sector of our Indian economy. Among agriculture various agricultural crops, oilseeds plays a major role by placing India at the 4th largest producer of oilseed in the world. Cultivation of oilseeds is done under 15-20 per cent of total area at global level (Kumar and Tiwari, 2020). Oilseeds group also considered to be one of the great sources of oil (soybean, groundnut, mustard, etc.) and protein (soybean). This study tried to analyse the trend in the area, production and productivity of soybean crop by fitting the exponential growth function. Further examination of instability in the crop was also done using Cuddy Della Valle index. The present study research period was taken from 1970-71 to 2017-18 which is further divided as follows: Pre Technology Mission on Oilseeds (Pre TMO) Period from 1970-71 to 1985-86, Technology Mission on Oilseeds Phase one Period from 1986-87 to 2001-02, Technology Mission on Oilseeds Phase two Period from 2002-03 to 2017-18, Overall Period of Technology Mission on Oilseeds from 1986-87 to 2017-18, Overall Period from 1970-71 to 1985-86. The Pre TMO period and Post TMO period criteria has been considered to estimate whether TMO had any impact on area, production , productivity, import and export of oilseeds. The study showed that during Pre TMO period, positive growth rate in the area of soybean was found positive in all the states except in Gujarat where area declined at the rate of 5.26 per cent per annum. Maximum rate of growth in the area was found in Rajasthan at the rate of 21.00 per cent per annum. During this period, production increased in all the states and country as a whole wherein, maximum rate of production registered in Rajasthan at the rate of 20.52 per cent per annum, production had shown negative growth in Gujarat at the rate of 0.08 per cent per annum. Productivity had shown increasing trend in all the states except in Rajasthan where negative growth is found at the rate of 0.40 per cent per annum. Maximum increase in the productivity was registered in Maharashtra at the rate of 7.78 per cent per annum. While the instability analysis revealed that fluctuations in the area of soybean was observed only in the state of Gujarat, whereas, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan production of soybean was comparatively less stable as compared to the other major states.