Avoid Falling from the Enrollment Cliff: Finding Treasures from Rural Areas May Be a Solution for Some Universities

Recent declines in college-age populations have raised “enrollment cliff” concerns among universities. This article compares age group distributions across levels of urbanicity (metropolitan, micropolitan, and rural towns), regions, and NCAA conferences. It shows, across regions and most NCAA conferences (Mountain West, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12), rural town populations are facing more moderate decrease than metropolitan and micropolitan areas. Given these trends, although rural recruitment is often more costly on a per student basis, it could be a worthwhile investment for universities to mitigate enrollment challenges, especially for institutions that have already saturated their urban recruitment pools. Targeted scholarships and financial aid can help attract rural students, and early successes may generate momentum by encouraging additional students from rural communities to apply. For institutions with more limited financial resources, identifying external scholarship opportunities and building one-on-one connections with prospective students, particularly to address concerns about transitioning to large campuses and urban environments, can also enhance recruitment outcomes. Investing in rural recruitment is especially relevant for institutions with land-grant missions, and given rural students’ backgrounds and interests, it may be particularly beneficial for agribusiness, agricultural economics, and other departments within colleges of agriculture.