Forecast Intervals for Inflation in Romania
In this paper I built forecasts intervals for the inflation rate in Romania, using the quarterly predicted values provided by the National Bank of Romania for 2007-2010. First, I used the historical errors method, which is the most used method, especially by the central banks. Forecast intervals were built considering that the forecast error series is normally distributed of zero mean and standard deviation equal to the RMSE (root mean squared error) corresponding to historical forecast errors. I introduced as a measure of economic state the indicator â€“ relative variance of the phenomenon at a specific time in relation with the variance on the entire time horizon. Then, I calculated the relative volatility in order to know the change that must be brought to the root mean squared error in order to take into account the state of economy. Finally, I proposed a new way of building forecasts intervals, when the date series follows an autoregressive process of order 1. In this case the length of forecasts interval is smaller and I got a slightly higher relative variance. I consider really necessary the building of forecasts intervals, in order to have a measure of predictions uncertainty, which is quantified by the National Bank of Romania using the prediction intervals based on a simple methodology. I calculated the forecasts intervals using MAE (mean absolute error), the indicator chose by National Bank of Romania and the MSE (mean squared error) indicator.
Volume (Year): XVIII(2011) (2011)
Issue (Month): 11(564) (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +40 21 3 12 22 48
Fax: +40 21 3 12 97 17
Web page: http://www.asociatiaeconomistilor.ro/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:11(564):y:2011:i:11(564):p:27-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marin Dinu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.