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Der Beschäftigungseffekt geringerer Sozialabgaben in Deutschland - Wie beeinflusst die Wahl des Simulationsmodells das Ergebnis?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Feil
  • Sabine Klinger
  • Gerd Zika

Abstract

This study analyses to what extent political advice may depend on research instru-ments. As an example, a cut in the social contributions rate, financed by an increase in VAT or by a flat-rate premium, was simulated with three alternative macro models. The general equilibrium model PACE-L, the long term structural model IAB/INFORGE and the short term business cycle model IAB/RWI all contain the main components of the theoretical analysis. These are labour demand, depending on wages, as well as wage setting through bargaining. However, the models put differ-ent emphasis on the main factors that influence the employment effect of the partial refinancing of the social security system, namely labour costs, macroeconomic de-mand and the shift of the tax burden. The maximum employment effect is found by the general equilibrium model in a flat-rate premium case for everyone. It amounts to 0.56 %. In the only negative case, employment declines by 0.05 %. Via moderate wage claims, employees can promote the employment effect of the reform in theory as well as in all the simulation models.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Feil & Sabine Klinger & Gerd Zika, 2008. "Der Beschäftigungseffekt geringerer Sozialabgaben in Deutschland - Wie beeinflusst die Wahl des Simulationsmodells das Ergebnis?," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(3), pages 431-460.
  • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqsjb:v128_y2008_i3_q3_p431-460
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ziebarth, Nicolas R. & Karlsson, Martin, 2010. "A natural experiment on sick pay cuts, sickness absence, and labor costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 1108-1122, December.
    2. Nicolas R. Ziebarth & Martin Karlsson, 2014. "The Effects Of Expanding The Generosity Of The Statutory Sickness Insurance System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 208-230, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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