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From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Jiao
  • Ting Lan
  • Yang Liu
  • Xinrui Zhou

Abstract

This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time Automatic Identification System maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Jiao & Ting Lan & Yang Liu & Xinrui Zhou, 2026. "From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 116, pages 646-651, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:116:y:2026:p:646-651
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261119
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation

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