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The Cost of Delivery Delays

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  • Maria-Jose Carreras-Valle
  • Alessandro Ferrari

Abstract

The rise in supply disruptions after COVID-19 affected businesses across the United States. Yet, measures of disruptions or delays are difficult to estimate. Here, we provide a model-based measure of delays using aggregate manufacturing inventory data and study their economic cost. We find an increase of 21 days in the average US import shipping delay from 2018 to 2024. Our estimated delivery delays are consistent with changes in the lead times reported in the data. The rise in delays has associated output costs of 2.6 percent and a 0.4 percent increase in prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria-Jose Carreras-Valle & Alessandro Ferrari, 2025. "The Cost of Delivery Delays," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 115, pages 618-623, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:115:y:2025:p:618-23
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251089
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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