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Decision Theory and Stochastic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Robson
  • Larry Samuelson
  • Jakub Steiner

Abstract

This paper examines connections between stochastic growth and decision problems. We use tools from the theory of large deviations to show that wishful thinking decision problems are equivalent to utility maximization problems, both of which are equivalent to growth maximization under idiosyncratic risk. Rational inattention problems are equivalent to growth-optimal portfolio problems, both of which are equivalent to growth maximization under aggregate risk. Stochastic growth generates extreme inequality, with nearly all wealth eventually held by those who happen to have faced empirical distributions that match the solution to the wishful thinking or rational inattention problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Robson & Larry Samuelson & Jakub Steiner, 2023. "Decision Theory and Stochastic Growth," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 357-376, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:5:y:2023:i:3:p:357-76
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20220456
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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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