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Rainfall Inequality, Political Power, and Ethnic Conflict in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Guariso
  • Thorsten Rogall

Abstract

How are ethnic inequality and ethnic violence related? We empirically investigate this question using an innovative measure of resource inequality between ethnic groups, based on rainfall in ethnic homelands during the plant-growing season. Our main dataset covers the period 1950–2020 and includes 250 ethnicities located across 43 African countries. Our results indicate that rainfall-based inequality is a strong predictor of ethnic violence and that the link heavily depends on the power relations across ethnic groups. In terms of mechanisms, our results suggest that resource inequality leads to more ethnic conflicts by exacerbating grievances.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Guariso & Thorsten Rogall, 2026. "Rainfall Inequality, Political Power, and Ethnic Conflict in Africa," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 38-60, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:18:y:2026:i:3:p:38-60
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20210174
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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