IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejpol/v17y2025i4p106-34.html

Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Vaibhav Anand

Abstract

Significant investments are directed toward improving the accuracy and early availability of forecasts. However, the value of longer lead times on forecasts is unclear. Using data on winter weather advisories and vehicle crashes in the United States, I show that advisories with longer lead times reduce crashes, even when they are less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times. Further, marginal benefits do not decrease with lead time. The benefits come from individual and institutional responses. When advisories arrive earlier, people visit fewer places, and snowplow crews intensify the road maintenance operations. These results have policy implications for providing effective forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaibhav Anand, 2025. "Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 106-134, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:106-34
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230247
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pol.20230247
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E198050V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/24069
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/24070
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/pol.20230247?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:106-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.