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The Round Trip Effect: Endogenous Transport Costs and International Trade

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  • Woan Foong Wong

Abstract

Container ships travel between a fixed set of origins and destinations in round trips, inducing a negative correlation in their freight rates. I study the implications of this round trip effect on international trade and trade policy. I identify this effect and develop an instrument using it to estimate the impact of transport costs on trade. I simulate counterfactual import tariff increases in a quantitative model and quantify the importance of endogenizing transport costs with respect to this effect: an exogenous transport costs model predicts a trade balance improvement from protectionist policies, while the round trip model finds the opposite.

Suggested Citation

  • Woan Foong Wong, 2022. "The Round Trip Effect: Endogenous Transport Costs and International Trade," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 127-166, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:127-66
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20190721
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian & Nikos Nomikos & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 417-450, March.
    2. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ishikawa, Jota & Tarui, Nori, 2020. "What goes around comes around: Export-enhancing effects of import-tariff reductions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Cosar,Ahmet Kerem, 2022. "Overland Transport Costs : A Review," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10156, The World Bank.
    4. Giulia Brancaccio & Myrto Kalouptsidi & Theodore Papageorgiou, 2023. "The impact of oil prices on world trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 444-463, May.
    5. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Felbermayr, Gabriel J. & Tarasov, Alexander, 2022. "Trade and the spatial distribution of transport infrastructure," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Dominik Boddin & Frank Stähler, 2018. "The Organization of International Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7378, CESifo.
    8. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain," Working Papers 243, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "Port congestion, container shortages, and U.S. foreign trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    10. Jason Dunn & Fernando Leibovici, 2023. "Navigating the Waves of Global Shipping: Drivers and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2023-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Feb 2024.
    11. Colin A. Carter & Sandro Steinbach & Xiting Zhuang, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and containerized agricultural exports from California ports," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1051-1071, June.
    12. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade disruptions along the global supply chain," Discussion Papers 2023-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    13. Ashutosh Kar & Pratyay Ranjan Datta, 2020. "Logistics Cost Dynamics in International Business: A Causal Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(4), pages 478-495, November.
    14. Ardelean, Adina & Lugovskyy, Volodymyr, 2023. "It Pays to be big: Price discrimination in maritime shipping," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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