The Size and Evolution of the Government Spending Multiplier in France
Focusing on government spending on private goods and services from 1980 to 2010, we nd that the scal multiplier in France is signi cant and close to 1 on impact, and becomes statistically insigni cant after about 3 years. Moreover, using a time-varying SVAR model, we conclude (1) that this multiplier does not evolve signifi cantly over any time horizon from the beginning of the 1980s onwards and (2) that the variance of shocks hitting the economy evolves more than the model autoregressive parameters. Even in alternative speci cations where Bayesian priors are pushed towards time variation, the main evolution that we uncover is a (nonsignifi cant) decrease in the medium-term spending multiplier, partly linked to the implementation of a more aggressive monetary policy since the 1990s. We fi nd no evidence of an increase in the multiplier during recessions in France. At the very least, business cycle conditions do not seem to be the main driver of the evolution of the government spending multiplier from 1980 to 2010.
Volume (Year): (2017)
Issue (Month): 127 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3, avenue Pierre Larousse, 92245 Malakoff Cedex|
Web page: https://annals.ensae.fr/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2017:i:127:p:95-122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laurent Linnemer)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.