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Spread Term Structure and Default Correlation


  • Patrick Gagliardini
  • Christian Gouriéroux


The aim of this paper is to analyse default correlation and its implications for the term structures of corporate bonds and credit derivatives, reconsidering the results of Jarrow, R., and F. Yu [2001] and the related literature. We first provide different characterisations of spread term structures, when the available information corresponds to the default histories of the firms. The approach is then extended to factor models, in both static and a dynamic framework. We discuss in details the links between default correlation and jumps in short term spreads, and how these phenomena depend on the available information.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2016. "Spread Term Structure and Default Correlation," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 175-223.
  • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2016:i:123-124:p:175-223 DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.123-124.0175

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Gribisch, Bastian & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2012. "The conditional autoregressive Wishart model for multivariate stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 211-223.
    2. Luc Bauwens & Christian M. Hafner & Diane Pierret, 2013. "Multivariate Volatility Modeling Of Electricity Futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 743-761, August.
    3. Colacito, Riccardo & Engle, Robert F. & Ghysels, Eric, 2011. "A component model for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 45-59, September.
    4. Laurent, Sébastien & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Violante, Francesco, 2013. "On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 1-10.
    5. BAUWENS, Luc & STORTI, Giuseppe & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2012. "Dynamic conditional correlation models for realized covariance matrices," CORE Discussion Papers 2012060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Diaa Noureldin & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2012. "Multivariate high‐frequency‐based volatility (HEAVY) models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 907-933, September.
    7. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
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    More about this item


    Corporate Bonds; Credit Risk; Default Correlation; Jumps in Intensities; Copula; Credit Derivatives; Stochastic Intensity;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages


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