IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/adi/ijbess/v7y2025i4p253-269.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing and forecasting droughts in eThekwini municipality: SPI, SPEI, and Time Series Insights for Sustainable Resource Management

Author

Listed:
  • Ntokozo Xaba

    (Faculty of Applied Science, Durban University of Technology, South Africa)

  • Nirmala Deenadayalu

    (Durban University of Technology, South Africa)

Abstract

The eThekwini Municipality, South Africa, has experienced increased drought frequency and intensity due to climate change and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study assesses and forecasts meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and ARIMA/SARIMA models, analyzing climate data from 1990 to 2022. Results reveal significant drought intensification, with extreme events in 2019 (central region, SPEI-6 = -3.42) and 2020 (northern region, SPI-3 = -8.15). SARIMA models outperformed ARIMA in forecasting accuracy, emphasizing the role of seasonality. Urbanization and land-use changes exacerbate central region droughts, while northern agricultural reliance highlights the need for water storage. Recommendations include drought-resistant crops, enhanced irrigation, and rainwater harvesting to bolster resilience. These findings inform localized drought management and contribute to global climate adaptation strategies. Key Words:Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Meteorological Drought, SARIMA.

Suggested Citation

  • Ntokozo Xaba & Nirmala Deenadayalu, 2025. "Assessing and forecasting droughts in eThekwini municipality: SPI, SPEI, and Time Series Insights for Sustainable Resource Management," International Journal of Business Ecosystem & Strategy (2687-2293), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 7(4), pages 253-269, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:adi:ijbess:v:7:y:2025:i:4:p:253-269
    DOI: 10.36096/ijbes.v7i4.869
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bussecon.com/ojs/index.php/ijbes/article/view/869/536
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.36096/ijbes.v7i4.869
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.36096/ijbes.v7i4.869?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adi:ijbess:v:7:y:2025:i:4:p:253-269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Umit Hacioglu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibihutr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.