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Efficient bankruptcy prediction and its role for a more resilient Alpine tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Plaikner

    (University of Innsbruck & UMIT Tirol)

  • Marco Haid

    (UMIT Tirol – Private University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology)

  • Marcus Tänzel

    (Volkswagen Group Retail France)

  • Hüseyin Yağızhan Kol

    (Ibn Haldun University)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of selected variables on the value creation of tourism enterprises in Western Austria (Salzburg, Tyrol, and Vorarlberg) with the objective of developing an insolvency prediction model for Alpine tourism businesses. This study specifically highlights practical applications for business owners, policymakers, and financial institutions, providing strategies to mitigate bankruptcy risks in the tourism sector. The objective of this study is to address existing gaps in the literature regarding the early detection of insolvency in the tourism sector, particularly in German-speaking regions. To this end, a hybrid analytical method is employed, combining quantitative statistical approaches with sector-specific contextual analysis. A dataset comprising tourism firms was divided into two groups, namely solvent and insolvent, with a view to identifying significant explanatory variables influencing insolvency risks. The primary findings indicate that enterprise size, company age, and debt levels (as indicated by the equity ratio) are significant risk factors for insolvency. Furthermore, the results suggest that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to financial crises. Finally, the findings demonstrate that macroeconomic structures and sectoral effects significantly impact insolvency probabilities. These findings emphasise the necessity for the development of early warning systems that are tailored to the specific requirements of SMEs in Alpine tourism.This research is particularly pertinent in light of the rising insolvency rates in the tourism industry and the lack of comprehensive official statistics, which impede effective crisis management. By addressing these challenges, the study contributes to the development of targeted risk management and intervention strategies to enhance the resilience of tourism enterprises in the region. Key Words: tourism, bankruptcy, SMEs, Risk Management, Resilience

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Plaikner & Marco Haid & Marcus Tänzel & Hüseyin Yağızhan Kol, 2025. "Efficient bankruptcy prediction and its role for a more resilient Alpine tourism," International Journal of Business Ecosystem & Strategy (2687-2293), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 7(1), pages 152-172, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:adi:ijbess:v:7:y:2025:i:1:p:152-172
    DOI: 10.36096/ijbes.v7i1.716
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    References listed on IDEAS

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