EU Carbon Tax (Sbam) and its Impact on Russian Exports

One of the main trends in global development is the decarbonization of production and the economy as a whole, initiated by Western countries and affecting global trade and, in particular, Russian exports through the mechanism of cross-border carbon regulation. The author substantiates the point of view that the modern transformation of integration processes often has a negative impact on Russian exports. The relevance of this study is determined by the urgent need for a comprehensive assessment of the effects of the introduction of CBAM on Russian exports, identification of the most vulnerable industries and companies, as well as the development of thoughtful adaptation strategies at both the corporate and government levels. The effectiveness of the response to this challenge will determine not only the preservation of Russia's market position in Europe, but also its long-term place in the structure of the global economy. The purpose of the article is to analyze and assess the risks to Russian exports as a result of the introduction by the European Union of a mechanism for cross–border carbon regulation. The article reveals the revealed high specific carbon intensity of Russian production in comparison with a number of competing countries. An assessment of the potential consequences for Russian exports revealed significant risks, both direct financial and structural in nature. Quantitative calculations based on the volume of exports, the carbon intensity of Russian production, and projected prices for carbon certificates indicate potential annual financial losses of several billion euros, which will primarily affect key export industries such as ferrous and non—ferrous metallurgy, fertilizer and cement production. These losses are not abstract; they will directly affect the profitability of Russia's leading exporting companies, their investment opportunities and, ultimately, revenues to the federal budget.