Mechanism for selecting instruments to support small and medium enterprise based on scenario forecasting

Given the current structural transformation of the Russian economy, research into small and medium enterprise’s (SME) incentives is particularly relevant and has significant scientific and practical significance. This study aims to interpret the experience of state organized support for SMEs, identify the most effective state incentive practices, and substantiate organizational and legal formats for improving the use of SME development tools in the Russian Federation. Research methods include comprehensive, statistical, and comparative scientific analysis, as well as retrospective content analysis. The methodological basis of the study is formed by the conceptual and theoretical postulates of institutional economics, in the part concerning public management of economic processes. The article information base is formed by the results of scientific research concerning the analysis of institutional, organizational, and economic mechanisms for stimulating business activity of small and medium enterprises, taking into account various scenarios, legislative and regulatory legal acts establishing formats for providing state support, statistical data, and international practices for organizing SME incentives. The authors developed a concept for a digital platform (digital designer) for SME incentive tools, taking into account various scenario conditions. This platform integrates data on entrepreneurs, regional economic parameters, available support measures, and their implementation outcomes, as well as recommendation algorithms that enable the automated creation of personalized sets of measures for specific SMEs. The implementation of such mechanism allows for a transition from a mechanistic expansion of measures to a targeted support configuration that enhances its effectiveness given limited resources and changing external conditions. The results of the study contribute to improving the effectiveness of existing SME support tools in the Russian Federation.