Increasing the level of economic security of the oil and gas region based on its highly profitable industrial production

Research into improving the economic security of oil and gas regions is a pressing scientific challenge, the solution of which is essential for ensuring the country’s sustainable economic development. This topic received ample coverage in domestic and international scientific literature. However, despite a significant amount of research, a number of issues remain insufficiently analyzed or require rethinking in the context of current economic realities. Objective: to develop approaches to increasing the economic security of the oil and gas region based on its industrial potential in the context of sanctions restrictions, the transformation of the global fuel and energy balance, and the high volatility of oil and gas resources. The study addressed the objectives of theoretical reviewing scientific approaches to innovative industrial regional development, taking into account economic security requirements and economic and statistical analysis of the volume, structure, dynamics, and profitability of industrial assets and products in the oil and gas regions of the Volga Federal District. For the practical part of the study, paired regression and structural and dispersion analysis were used to analyze shipped goods of own production, as well as completed works and services in oil and gas regions, by economic activity type: “Mining†and “Manufacturing.†This allowed us to construct forecast trends and a system of equations describing the development of regional industry for the period 2017–2030, beginning with a rise in oil prices after the previous crisis, including “peak oil†periods in 2018 and 2022, and a significant decline in 2020. The analytical methods used also revealed a close interregional correlation in industrial production indicators (η2 = 62,42% in the extractive industry and η2 = 82,25% in the manufacturing industry) and a lack thereof in terms of return on assets and product profitability. Based on the results of an economic and theoretical review and our analysis, an equilibrium cyclical model of the system of conditions and consequences for increasing the level of economic security in an oil and gas region has been developed. It reflects the mechanism of mutual closure of the regulatory risk of institutional transformations and the conflict of interests between the updated institutions and economic conditions at the federal and regional levels on the use of strategic corporate resources of the oil and gas and related industries in order to protect regional economic systems.