Analysis of factors of mortgage lending availability in Sevastopol

With rising interest rates and an accelerated rise in housing prices, the problem of mortgage lending availability is becoming particularly relevant. For the city of Sevastopol, where the real estate market is developing under the influence of resort and investment demand, limited land resources and high migration activity, a decrease in mortgage availability is becoming a factor constraining the socio-economic development of the region. The purpose of the study is to identify and quantify the factors influencing the low availability of mortgage loans in Sevastopol in 2020–2024. Materials and methods: the information base is based on the official statistics from Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, and DOM.RF, EMISS, and Rosreestr. To ensure the completeness and reliability of the analysis, the work used indicators reflecting key trends in the development of the mortgage market and the income level of the population. The methodological framework of the research includes comparative and structural-dynamic analysis, as well as correlation and regression modeling. To assess accessibility, the debt burden indicator (PD) was used, reflecting the ratio of the average monthly mortgage payment and the average per capita income of the population. Results. It was established that in 2020–2024 the average cost per 1 sq. m of housing in Sevastopol had more than doubled. The mortgage interest rate on new buildings increased 2.5 times, while household incomes increased by only 64%. The debt burden indicator increased from 49 to 133%, which indicates deterioration in mortgage availability. The regression model confirmed the determining influence of the interest rate (b = 4,44; R2 = 0,996). Conclusions: the results indicate the key role of interest rate policy and price factors in reducing mortgage affordability. To stabilize the situation, it is proposed to implement a set of measures, including improving preferential programs, developing housing construction and supporting borrowers with low and medium incomes. These measures will help reduce the debt burden and increase the stability of the housing market in the region.