A retrospective assessment of the effectiveness of import substitution of the manufacturing industries’ products of the Russian North-­West

The import substitution policy implemented in Russia since 2014 is designed to develop domestic production of competitive products. Under the conditions of sanctions restrictions, its activation should offset the risks of curtailing the production of goods that are critically important for the country’s economy and regions. Manufacturing industries are the most affected industries due to high import dependence on machinery, equipment and technologies. The identification of problems in the implementation of import substitution policies and restrictions for different sub-sectors will be useful for authorities in adjusting industrial policy and developing support measures. The paper identifies import substitution trends for all sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry in the North-­West of Russia, for which the coefficients of the share of imports in domestic consumption in the period 2017–2021 are calculated. Based on data from Rosstat and the North-­Western Customs Administration, manufacturing industries with positive and negative trends have been identified. Anomalies of a sharp change in the share of imports for a number of industries in 2021 were found, which could have occurred due to increased sanctions pressure and additional restrictions on foreign trade. The results of the study will be of interest to economists studying the sectoral specifics of the socio-­economic development of regions, as well as to executive authorities.