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Factor-based modeling and forecasting of innovation activity in manufacturing

Author

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  • O. I. Dontsova

  • V. N. Zasko

Abstract

This study aims to develop a fit-for-purpose model of the manufacturing innovation activity index for quantitatively assessing changes in sectoral innovation development over time. The analysis focuses on manufacturing, one of the core sectors of the Russian economy. The study integrates scenario matrices with tools for quantifying the fiscal effects associated with the integration of government information systems. A multiple linear regression model is estimated for the manufacturing innovation activity index. The model can be used by federal economic agencies, executive authorities in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, development institutions, corporations, and expert communities when developing and adjusting tax policy, drafting regulations, and supporting investment projects in manufacturing industries.

Suggested Citation

  • O. I. Dontsova & V. N. Zasko, 2026. "Factor-based modeling and forecasting of innovation activity in manufacturing," Russian Journal of Industrial Economics, MISIS, vol. 19(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:ach:journl:y:2026:id:1711
    DOI: 10.17073/2072-1633-2026-3-1711
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