Trends in federal fiscal policy in the context of achieving long-term socio-economic development goals in Russia

A characteristic feature of the period from 2014 to the present has been a consistent deterioration of the external conditions for Russia’s socioeconomic development due to anti-Russian sanctions imposed by unfriendly states, as well as declining global economic stability. Under these conditions, the role of the federal budget and fiscal policy as factors in the country’s socioeconomic development is increasing. This article provides a compre­hensive analysis of the evolution of Russia’s fiscal policy during the period of structural transformations caused by successive waves of international sanctions (since 2014), the COVID-19 pandemic, and the emergence of a new geopolitical reality. The objective of the study is to identify and systematize the key trends in the transformation of Russia’s fiscal policy from 2014 to 2027, assess its effectiveness as a tool for adapting to external challenges, and formulate promising areas for development. The study covers the period from 2014 to 2027 and identifies key adaptation mechanisms and strategic priorities. The methodo­logical framework is based on a comparative analysis, generalization, and formalization of data on federal budget execution and the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The theo­retical and methodological foundation of the study is formed by the works of domestic and international researchers on the socioeconomic development of the state and the role of the state budget. The results indicate a paradigm shift in fiscal policy: from a policy of stabiliza­tion and reserve accumulation in response to the shocks of 2014–2016 to a policy of active­ly stimulating structural restructuring of the economy and technological sovereignty after 2022. Key trends have been identified: a shift in focus to non-resource revenues, outpacing growth in defense and social spending, the introduction of progressive taxation elements, and an expanded horizon for strategic budget planning. The article assesses the risks asso­ciated with persistently high inflation and growing debt burden and formulates recommen­dations for increasing the flexibility and effectiveness of fiscal policy in an environment of permanent uncertainty.