The impact of industrial development in the Northern regions on water resources: a forecast model based on the example of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

The industrial regions of Russia face an important strategic task of transition to sustainable production development with reduced environmental impact, including on the water resources of the territories of presence. The active phase of industrial development and the implementation of large mining projects in the northern territories have a direct impact on the use and pollution of water resources. There is a demand for modern ecosystem management tools to evaluate and monitor indicators that characterize the principles of sustainable use of natural resources, especially in high-risk areas – the northern resource-type territories. The purpose of the work is to assess the impact of industrial development on the water resources of the northern territories using mathematical and statistical models in the context of municipal districts on the example of a resource-type region (the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)). Some economic and mathematical methods were used in the study: time series dynamics, expert assessment, sum of places, rating, modeling, decoupling, and others. The pace and prospects of industrial development of the republic’s municipal districts have been determined. A rating of municipal districts of the republic in terms of environmental and economic impact has been built. The results of assessing the productivity of water resources in the creation of a gross municipal product have been obtained. The dynamics of the state of the water resources of the districts is analyzed. Based on the constructed models, a forecast estimate of the dynamics of water intake volumes in the TOP 5 producing regions of the republic is given.