Approach to an integrated assessment of the effectiveness of the development strategy of the Russian oil industry

Currently, when planning and monitoring the implementation of the development strategy of the Russian oil industry, several target indicators are used in the areas of industry development. The presence of several indicators related to various tactical tasks of the development of the oil industry, with the limited capabilities of the decision maker, does not allow to generalize these data without the use of special tools. These reasons make it necessary to use an integrated indicator in the strategic management of the Russian oil industry, which will allow us to assess the dynamics of the complex state of the Russian oil industry in time, as well as conduct international comparisons. The paper proposes a methodology for evaluating such an integral indicator using methods of hierarchy analysis, a weighted sum of criteria, cluster analysis and the Delphi method. The integral indicator is a synthetic indicator obtained by collapsing the local indicators of the oil industry (quantitatively characterizing the degree of solution of tactical tasks), taking into account the weights of these indicators, as well as the significance of tactical tasks relative to the strategic goal. To evaluate the weight of the criteria system, the hierarchy analysis method is used. The folding of the criteria system is carried out using the method of weighted sum of criteria. Target values of local indicators are estimated using cluster analysis and the Delphi method.