Systemic analysis of the publication environment and dissertation outcomes in the training of highly qualified research personnel in Russia

The challenges associated with the training of highly qualified research personnel in contemporary Russia are linked to the transformation of postgraduate education as an institutional mechanism for reproducing research and academic staff, the contraction of the higher education talent pool, declining dissertation outcomes, and persistent interregional disparities in research capacity. However, the relationship between the parameters of the publication environment shaped by academic degree attestation requirements and the configuration of the Higher Attestation Commission (HAC/VAK) List of peer-reviewed journals and dissertation outcomes remains insufficiently examined quantitatively. The aim of this study is to develop an analytical framework for the systemic assessment of the publication environment and its statistical association with dissertation outcomes amid the transformation of the regulatory framework governing academic degree attestation. The study proposes a set of open-data indicators for assessing the conditions of dissertation preparation based on publication activity in VAK-listed journals and regional trends in successfully defended dissertations, using eLIBRARY.RU data for 2015–2024. Official statistical and regulatory materials were additionally used to characterize the institutional and staffing contexts. The methodological framework comprises descriptive statistics, concentration measures, linear trend analysis, year-on-year changes, correlation analysis, and quartile grouping. The findings reveal a high degree of interregional concentration in research publication activity, predominantly downward trajectories in the number of defended dissertations and research personnel, and a simultaneous upward trend in R&D expenditure. A statistical association is established between publication and authorship indicators and the number of successfully defended dissertations. At the journal level, the analysis identifies a declining share of new authors and an increase in their average age. The practical significance of the study lies in the development of an approach to monitoring the publication environment and the associated conditions of dissertation preparation, taking into account the regulatory requirements governing academic degree attestation.