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Predictive planning as a strategic risk management tool for the supply chains of oil and gas industry in Uzbekistan

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  • M. V. Zagrebelskaya

Abstract

This article discusses the challenges of strategic risk management in the supply chain operations of the oil and gas industry in Uzbekistan. Using the case of JSC ‘Uzbekneftegaz’, the study identifies critical weaknesses in the current material and technical supply (MTS) system, including a high level of import dependency, fragmented data, and a low level of digital maturity among suppliers. The need for a shift from reactive to predictive planning is supported by the use of digital tools and advanced analytics. The author proposes three innovative tools for predictive planning — PIRSP (Predictive Index of Risk of Supply Problems), PESI (Predictive Evaluation of Supplier Integrity), and DLI (Digital Literacy Index). These tools allow for a quantitative assessment of supply disruption risks, supplier resilience, and levels of digital integration. The paper concludes that predictive planning has a high potential to strengthen supply chain resilience, reduce operational costs, and enhance strategic agility for oil and gas companies.

Suggested Citation

  • M. V. Zagrebelskaya, 2025. "Predictive planning as a strategic risk management tool for the supply chains of oil and gas industry in Uzbekistan," Strategic decisions and risk management, Real Economy Publishing House, vol. 16(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:abw:journl:y:2025:id:1219
    DOI: 10.17747/2618-947X-2025-3-250-261
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