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Avaliação de risco no transporte urbano: uma aplicação ao metrô do Rio de Janeiro

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  • Luiz Claudio de Souza Campos
  • Luiz Flavio Autran Monteiro Gomes

Abstract

This article presents a decision analysis for the evaluation of risks in the public concession process for the Rio de Janeiro subway Line 3 project. The methodology that was used in the study produced the monetary value of the forecasted consequences from the identified risks. The risk value was added to the financial and economic values of the project and by this the new, aggregated monetary value of the project was determined. From the analysis it was understood that the project has a high level of risk, although it was shown to be financially and economically compatible with the expected return. This monetary valuation of risks contributes to significantly reducing the final value of the project, making it unattractive to potential investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Luiz Claudio de Souza Campos & Luiz Flavio Autran Monteiro Gomes, 2005. "Avaliação de risco no transporte urbano: uma aplicação ao metrô do Rio de Janeiro," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 9(1), pages 103-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:abg:anprac:v:9:y:2005:i:1:361
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