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Survival analysis for predicting bankruptcy in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): A case study approach

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Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) survival through a quantitative analysis of financial and managerial factors. Using a dataset of SMEs observed over a ten-year period, the research applies survival analysis techniques based on the nonparametric Kaplan–Meier estimator and complementary log–log regression to identify predictors of business insolvency. The results show that firm survival is positively influenced by financial structure, return on assets, EBITDA, and human capital productivity, whereas excessive working capital is negatively associated with longevity. By incorporating underexplored variables such as financial results and employee productivity, this study broadens the empirical scope of survival analysis beyond traditional financial ratios. The findings contribute to the strategic management literature by identifying measurable financial and operational indicators that can serve as early warning signals of business failure. Although the data are drawn from a regional sample, the managerial implications are broadly applicable to SMEs operating across diverse economic and institutional contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mena-Siles, David & Gemar, German, 2025. "Survival analysis for predicting bankruptcy in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): A case study approach," Small Business International Review, Asociación Española de Contabilidad y Administración de Empresas - AECA, vol. 9(2), pages 773-773, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aaz:sbir01:v:9:y:2025:i:2:p:e773
    DOI: 10.26784/sbir.v9i2.773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Badi H. Baltagi, 2021. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 6, number 978-3-030-53953-5, January.
    2. Mas-Verdú, Francisco & Ribeiro-Soriano, Domingo & Roig-Tierno, Norat, 2015. "Firm survival: The role of incubators and business characteristics," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 793-796.
    3. Maad A. Q. Aldubhani & Jitian Wang & Tingting Gong & Ramzi Ali Maudhah, 2022. "Impact of working capital management on profitability: evidence from listed companies in Qatar," Journal of Money and Business, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(1), pages 70-81, March.
    4. Tinsley, P. A., 1970. "Capital Structure, Precautionary Balances, and Valuation of the Firm: The Problem of Financial Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 33-62, March.
    5. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M10 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - General

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