Assessing The Export Potential Of Basic Agricultural Products In Moldova Through The Lens Of Food Security

Moldova is a small landlocked country with the lowest GDP per capita among European economies, specialising in the export of agricultural products, particularly cereals and fruits. Recent economic crises and the war in Ukraine have amplified existing socio-economic constraints and raised concerns about national food security. This paper investigates the export potential of Moldova’s main agricultural products and their implications for food security. The study integrates national data on agricultural production, food balances, international trade, and prices with global datasets and develops a comprehensive system of indicators reflecting agricultural production capacities, trade performance, and export competitiveness, with a focus on key agricultural commodities. An econometric ARDL model is employed to assess the impact of external price dynamics and climatic variability on the growth of cereal exports, which represent a significant share of Moldova’s agri-food exports. The results indicate that Moldova has strengthened its export position in staple crops. However, the predominance of low-value-added raw commodities in agri-food exports and the country’s exposure to international price volatility heighten pressures on food access and affordability in the domestic market. The findings underline the importance of diversifying agri-food exports and promoting higher value-added production as key strategies for enhancing resilience and strengthening food security policy.